Essentially, we created two databases for our analysis. We describe how they were created below.
The first database (genodynamics_commune) concerns commune-level estimates of political violence from information collected by the Ministry of Education in Rwanda, Ministry of Local Affairs in Rwanda, Ibuka (the Rwandan survivor organization), African Rights (the international human rights organization) and Human Rights Watch (the international human rights organization) - the best sources available that could be identified which provided detailed information about political violence noting what took place, when and occasionally who was involved.
The second database concerns prefecture-level codings of violent activity extracted from the 10,000+ eyewitness accounts compiled by the International Criminal Tribunal on Rwanda that were provided to us in order to assess patterns in the violence. For reasons of privacy and the protection of those that gave testimony, we only provide redacted forms.
Below, we describe how the genodynamics data was created and what sources we used.
Database #1: Reported and Estimated Start Dates and Lethality
Rwanda Data Explanation
This explains our general method
(click on link for pdf for specific discussion of estimation)
Here is the data (csv format). Here is a simplified description of what is in the spreadsheet.
Within the spreadsheet, each source is denoted by a single letter:
A = African Rights
E = The Ministry of Education
H = Human Rights Watch
I = Ibuka
Y = The Ministry of Youth, Culture and Sport
Source comparisons are discussed below
We also provide combinations of the sources in our estimations so that:
AE = African Rights & The Ministry of Education
AH = African Rights & Human Rights Watch
AIY = African Rights & Ibuka & The Ministry of Youth, Culture and Sport
and so forth
We advocate using the estimation that is based on leveraging information from all the sources (denoted as AEHIY).
The Sources
Below are descriptions of the individual data sources that were employed within the research:
African Rights is a regional organization developed to bring truth and justice to the victims of the genocide. In their publication, “Rwanda: Death, Despair and Defiance” (1995) they attempted to compile as many eyewitness accounts of the genocide into one book. This specific publication is the second edition and includes additional data from Southern and Western Rwanda (particularly the prefectures of Kibuye, Cyangugu, and Gikongoro); areas previously inaccessible during the genocide. Ultimately, their efforts attempt to cover the entire country. Between April and June 1994, one individual conducted interviews during the genocide. Revisions for the second edition of the report included additional interviews conducted throughout 1995. Although the number of interviews is unknown, we do know the methodology is based on a snowball sample where information from one interview leads to another. Link to relevant information concerning the source.
Primary question of interest:
Human Rights Watch is an international NGO dedicated to monitor human rights violations all over the world. The purpose of their publication, “Leave None to Tell the Tale” is to educate people and bolster public support for the prosecution of those who participated in the genocide. Undertaken in 1995-1996, this study is based on the oral testimonies of hundreds of survivors, killers, people who saved, and bystanders of genocide as well as written documentation from diplomats, UN staff members, and the local Rwandan administration. Historians, political scientists, and lawyers were involved in the data collection effort, but the number involved is unknown. Although Human Rights Watch intended to document the entire country they paid particular attention to Southern Rwanda, which was most affected by the genocide. Link to source.
Primary question of interest:
Ibuka is a Tutsi organization (i.e., they were the group of Tutsi that stayed in Rwanda) developed to bring truth and justice to the survivors of the genocide. Undertaken between 1996 and 1999, the purpose of the “Kibuye Dictionary Project” was to provide justice for the victims and their families by thoroughly identifying all the victims in this prefecture. Additionally, they attempted to document the number, names, circumstances and date of death of the genocide victims (Tutsi) in Kibuye. Ibuka is a highly organized association with members acting as enumerators all over the country down to the cellule level (200 in total). One scholar, Philip Verwimp sites a lack of experience and the choice to use only survivors as enumerators as the main flaws of the study. Verwimp offered a correction to the original database - which we employ. The link to this source was taken down. Here is a link to research employing the Dictionary. As we have a hard copy, we are currently in the process of digitizing the Dictionary and will place this document here when completed.
Primary question of interest
Assessment of Philip Verwimp modified version
Primary question of interest:
The Ministry of Higher Education, Scientific Research and Culture is a cabinet of the Rwandan government. Between 25 November 1995 and 10 January 1996, this organization engaged in a project “The Commission for the Memorial of the Genocide and Massacre in Rwanda” . While the Ministry of Higher Education designed the project, it was executed with the assistance from other ministries including Labour and Social Affairs, Rehabilitation and Social Integration, Home Affairs and Communal Development, Family Affairs and Women’s Development and Defense. The Project was funded by HCDH, UNICEF, GTZ and UNESCO/PEER. Here is the report and here is the executive summary of the locations/times.
Primary question of interest:
We are not sure if there was ever a link on the Ministry's webpage for we only had a hard copy. We are currently in the process of digitizing this and will place this document here when completed.
The Ministry of Local Administration and Department of Information and Social Affairs in Rwanda developed a report called “The Counting of Genocide Victims.” Actual title:
Primary question of interest:
Ministry of Youth, Culture and Sport comes from a mass-grave identification project undertaken by the Ministry of Youth, Culture, and Sport with assistance from the Ministries of Social Affairs, Rehabilitation of Social Integration, Communal Development, Family and the Promotion of Women, and the Ministry of Defense. Actual title:
Primary question of interest:
The first database (genodynamics_commune) concerns commune-level estimates of political violence from information collected by the Ministry of Education in Rwanda, Ministry of Local Affairs in Rwanda, Ibuka (the Rwandan survivor organization), African Rights (the international human rights organization) and Human Rights Watch (the international human rights organization) - the best sources available that could be identified which provided detailed information about political violence noting what took place, when and occasionally who was involved.
The second database concerns prefecture-level codings of violent activity extracted from the 10,000+ eyewitness accounts compiled by the International Criminal Tribunal on Rwanda that were provided to us in order to assess patterns in the violence. For reasons of privacy and the protection of those that gave testimony, we only provide redacted forms.
Below, we describe how the genodynamics data was created and what sources we used.
Database #1: Reported and Estimated Start Dates and Lethality
Rwanda Data Explanation
This explains our general method
(click on link for pdf for specific discussion of estimation)
Here is the data (csv format). Here is a simplified description of what is in the spreadsheet.
Within the spreadsheet, each source is denoted by a single letter:
A = African Rights
E = The Ministry of Education
H = Human Rights Watch
I = Ibuka
Y = The Ministry of Youth, Culture and Sport
Source comparisons are discussed below
We also provide combinations of the sources in our estimations so that:
AE = African Rights & The Ministry of Education
AH = African Rights & Human Rights Watch
AIY = African Rights & Ibuka & The Ministry of Youth, Culture and Sport
and so forth
We advocate using the estimation that is based on leveraging information from all the sources (denoted as AEHIY).
The Sources
Below are descriptions of the individual data sources that were employed within the research:
African Rights is a regional organization developed to bring truth and justice to the victims of the genocide. In their publication, “Rwanda: Death, Despair and Defiance” (1995) they attempted to compile as many eyewitness accounts of the genocide into one book. This specific publication is the second edition and includes additional data from Southern and Western Rwanda (particularly the prefectures of Kibuye, Cyangugu, and Gikongoro); areas previously inaccessible during the genocide. Ultimately, their efforts attempt to cover the entire country. Between April and June 1994, one individual conducted interviews during the genocide. Revisions for the second edition of the report included additional interviews conducted throughout 1995. Although the number of interviews is unknown, we do know the methodology is based on a snowball sample where information from one interview leads to another. Link to relevant information concerning the source.
Primary question of interest:
- In its own words this study seeks to "outline the genocide in its political context." The report analyses (1) why killers began this form of killing, (2) how the mobilizing effort was so successful and (3) how and why people resisted these actions and mobilization efforts. (xviii)
- Report also details the international response and role of the media.(xxx)
- First edition- 7 weeks of research in Rwanda from April-June 1994 and additional research in Burundi, Tanzania, Nairobi and Europe. (xvi)
- Revised edition- additional research from January-April 1995 (xvi)
- Interviews
- Revised edition concentrates on south and west Rwanda, especially Kibuye, Cyangugu and Gikongoro which were not reached for the first edition. (xvi)
- limited
- Almost entirely first-hand testimonies (both a strength and weakness)
Human Rights Watch is an international NGO dedicated to monitor human rights violations all over the world. The purpose of their publication, “Leave None to Tell the Tale” is to educate people and bolster public support for the prosecution of those who participated in the genocide. Undertaken in 1995-1996, this study is based on the oral testimonies of hundreds of survivors, killers, people who saved, and bystanders of genocide as well as written documentation from diplomats, UN staff members, and the local Rwandan administration. Historians, political scientists, and lawyers were involved in the data collection effort, but the number involved is unknown. Although Human Rights Watch intended to document the entire country they paid particular attention to Southern Rwanda, which was most affected by the genocide. Link to source.
Primary question of interest:
- The HRW report is an attempt to analyze the killing campaign from the level of the local security committee to that of the UN Security Council. Provides both an overview of the genocide and a close examination of the killings in Southern Rwanda. (28)
- Study began in early 1995 and was concluded with its publication in March 1999. (28)
- Based on Rwandan government records, diplomatic and court documents as well as hundreds of interviews. (28)
- Entire country with a focus on the resistance in Southern Rwanda (28)
- Written by Alison De Forges, Based on Research by Alison De Forges, Timothy Longman, Michele Wagner, Kirsti Lattu, Eric Gillet, Catherine Choquet, Trish Huddleston and Jemera Rone (29)
- Meant to be a summary not a judicial record and as such may contain errors (30)
Ibuka is a Tutsi organization (i.e., they were the group of Tutsi that stayed in Rwanda) developed to bring truth and justice to the survivors of the genocide. Undertaken between 1996 and 1999, the purpose of the “Kibuye Dictionary Project” was to provide justice for the victims and their families by thoroughly identifying all the victims in this prefecture. Additionally, they attempted to document the number, names, circumstances and date of death of the genocide victims (Tutsi) in Kibuye. Ibuka is a highly organized association with members acting as enumerators all over the country down to the cellule level (200 in total). One scholar, Philip Verwimp sites a lack of experience and the choice to use only survivors as enumerators as the main flaws of the study. Verwimp offered a correction to the original database - which we employ. The link to this source was taken down. Here is a link to research employing the Dictionary. As we have a hard copy, we are currently in the process of digitizing the Dictionary and will place this document here when completed.
Primary question of interest
- Attempt to document the number, names, circumstances and date of death of the genocide victims (Tutsi) in Kibuye.
- Unclear
- Interviewers went house to house to collect the names of murdered Tutsi
- Kibuye
- 200 enumerators
- Filip Verwimp sites lack of experience and the choice to use only survivors as enumerators as the main flaws of the study (Verwimp 5)
- Study focused only on Tutsi victims
Assessment of Philip Verwimp modified version
Primary question of interest:
- Use of statistical tools to document the genocide, its mechanisms, its brutality and its speed (2)
- Unclear
- Recoded the IBUKA database to include victims and survivors (7)
- Work focuses on Kibuye Prefecture. Recoded Mabanza commune and half of the sectors of Gitesi commune (7)
- Unclear
- Unclear
The Ministry of Higher Education, Scientific Research and Culture is a cabinet of the Rwandan government. Between 25 November 1995 and 10 January 1996, this organization engaged in a project “The Commission for the Memorial of the Genocide and Massacre in Rwanda” . While the Ministry of Higher Education designed the project, it was executed with the assistance from other ministries including Labour and Social Affairs, Rehabilitation and Social Integration, Home Affairs and Communal Development, Family Affairs and Women’s Development and Defense. The Project was funded by HCDH, UNICEF, GTZ and UNESCO/PEER. Here is the report and here is the executive summary of the locations/times.
Primary question of interest:
- To provide information to researchers and the general public on the Rwandan genocide
- Unclear
- The methods of obtaining the necessary information occurred in several stages: 1) initiating contact with the prefecture and commune officials, 2) visiting the sites, and 3) recording testimonies and any available information about each genocide site. A fourth stage involve acquiring testimonies associated with the specific area in question. In order to gather the most accurate information only those who were present during the genocide were interviewed.
- Country
- Unclear
- Unclear
We are not sure if there was ever a link on the Ministry's webpage for we only had a hard copy. We are currently in the process of digitizing this and will place this document here when completed.
The Ministry of Local Administration and Department of Information and Social Affairs in Rwanda developed a report called “The Counting of Genocide Victims.” Actual title:
- Ministere De L'Adminstration Locale, De L'Information Et Des Affaires Sociales. Denombrement Des Victimes Du Genocide. Rapport Final. Republique Rwandaise. B.P. 3445 Kigali. Novembre 2002. Here is the link to English version of the source. Here is the original report in French.
Primary question of interest:
- The purpose of this study is to identify the names and total number of the victims of the genocide and the massacres. In addition the study hopes to identify the places worst effected by the genocide in order to direct government reconciliation efforts. (15)
- July 2000 through final publication in November 2002 (5)
- The study used a questionnaire to determine information about the victims of the genocide. (15)
- Country
- 60 Supervisors on the National level
- 724 Organizers on the Préfecture level
- 1825 Distributors on the Commune level (17)
- The study admits that the research method under-represents people living in the large cities (mostly Kigali), is biased by the length of time that had passed since the genocide, is effected by peoples fears about the justice process that was underway at the time and has an unintentional biases in certain areas and of certain families. (17-18)
- The individualism of the majority of the urban population and their indifference with regards to the data collection, so as to have the effect that the information there has not been given exhaustively
- The omissions due to the forgetfulness of the respondent based on the amount of time that has passed since the genocide
- The fear to speak about the victims in order to not be questioned like a witness in court
- The lack of information in certain zones where families where entirely decimated;
- The remarkable forgetfulness of names and size of victim families, which is occasionally reflected in the significant difference between the declared victim size and the victim size accounted for
- The fear to testify because one could be the next potential target for genocide criminals who are not yet disarmed
- The refusal of certain genocide survivors to answer questions under the pretext that the government" has not yet done anything in their favor".
- The counting of the genocide victims has taken place almost at the same time as the GACACA, which made certain people believe that this exercise was going to trap the witnesses and authors of the genocide
Ministry of Youth, Culture and Sport comes from a mass-grave identification project undertaken by the Ministry of Youth, Culture, and Sport with assistance from the Ministries of Social Affairs, Rehabilitation of Social Integration, Communal Development, Family and the Promotion of Women, and the Ministry of Defense. Actual title:
- Ministry of Youth, Culture and Sport (Ministere de L'Enseignement Superieur, De La Recherche Scientifique Et De La Culture) – Rapport Preliminaire D'Identification Des Sites Du Genocide et Des Massacres D'Avril-Juillet 1994 Au Rwanda. Commission Pour Le Memorial Du Genocide Et Des Massacres Au Rwanda, B.P. 624 Kigali. 1996.
Primary question of interest:
- Identification of the Sites of the Genocide and Massacres that took place in Rwanda from April to July 1994 (4)
- 25 November 1995 to 10 January 1996 (2.5 months) (5)
- Prefecture and commune officials were interviewed to obtain general information
- Guided site visits to listen to testimonies, observe and photograph (5)
- Country
- Unclear
- Some information gather is inconsistent with other finds of the report (5)
- Report is preliminary and written to be supplemented with additional material (6)
Source Comparisons
In an effort to be as thorough as possible, we considered a variety of different ways for utilizing the data compiled. With our estimation approach (discussed above), we could use one source to generate an estimation or a combination (there are 31). For us to use a source, it needed to identify politically violent behavior by the commune as well as by the day. This left us with five sources: Africa Rights, Human Rights Watch, Ibuka, the Ministry of Education as well as the Ministry of Youth, Culture and Sport. The result from the different combinations is provided below. An earlier comparison, based on a different methodology, is here.
As one can see, the more sources that are utilized (5 in the figures below), the more the variation in estimation narrows, which we would expect. Adopting this approach, the mean/average values (sources often provided a range of values and thus we could select the high, average or low) reveal an estimation of around 500,000 fatalities over the 100 days focused upon by all those interested in 1994 (i.e., between April and July).
Which Source combination of the 31 different options did we select?
Well, we compared the values from the different combinations which were taken from the five sources which identified violence across the full period of interest disaggregated by space and time, against a source which conducted a survey of all violence undertaken during the period by the Rwandan Ministry of Local Affairs (MINALOC). The ministry of local affairs compiled the most comprehensive source of data, though it exists in the aggregate for each commune. We compared our results for the 31 different combinations to the data from the ministry of local affairs. These are presented below in Figure 3.
An interesting pattern emerges from the comparison of the sources. The measure that best represents the variation in the Ministry of Local Affairs data is the one that uses all five sources. This does not mean that the absolute numbers are "correct" in any meaningful sense, but it means the patterns identified by using all 5 sources are most closely related to the patterns identified by the Ministry of Local Affairs.
Well, we compared the values from the different combinations which were taken from the five sources which identified violence across the full period of interest disaggregated by space and time, against a source which conducted a survey of all violence undertaken during the period by the Rwandan Ministry of Local Affairs (MINALOC). The ministry of local affairs compiled the most comprehensive source of data, though it exists in the aggregate for each commune. We compared our results for the 31 different combinations to the data from the ministry of local affairs. These are presented below in Figure 3.
An interesting pattern emerges from the comparison of the sources. The measure that best represents the variation in the Ministry of Local Affairs data is the one that uses all five sources. This does not mean that the absolute numbers are "correct" in any meaningful sense, but it means the patterns identified by using all 5 sources are most closely related to the patterns identified by the Ministry of Local Affairs.
Database #2: International Criminal Tribunal on Rwanda (ICTR) in Arusha, Tanzania. Between 1994 and approximately 2002, the prosecution for the ICTR engaged in a large-scale data collection effort of eyewitness testimony. Many of these records deal with specific cases that the court was investigating but many simply resulted from interviews in the country as well as in refugee camps outside of the country. GenoDynamics was contacted to analyze this database and compare it to the other information that we had collected. We were never given the records, however, we only saw some examples as well as the database filing system. Later, the prosecution no longer expressed an interest in this analysis and GenoDynamics was contacted by the defense for exactly the same service. Through this association, we petitioned to have the eyewitness database made available, which (after about a year) we obtained. These records are comprised of several thousand testimonies (we believe that there are several thousand more but these were the only ones released by the Prosecutor’s office to the court and for our analysis that we were doing for them at the time). For the record, we requested the following:
After several months, the Prosecution withdrew their offer and the defense asked us to perform the same exact tasks identified above, Following this, we obtained the map, the witness statements and indirect access to those convicted as well as under the protection of the ICTR. To our knowledge, none of the information we were asked to produce was used in any court case.
Contact us to see examples of redacted testimony (compiled by the court). We offer one of the thousand documents below. Warning - the story is graphic. We are in the process of content analyzing the documents now and making their content available for other scholars after we have removed identifying information not redacted by the ICTR.
Example
1 - Everyone was moving, Hutus and Tutsi together, they split and violence begins (ICTR Witness #/K0117326)
- individual level records for 1991 census data (in order to calculate %Tutsi population) – source: Ministry of Census;
- 2001 cell level census data (to generate KIA transmission map) – source: Ministry of Local Affairs;
- Physical locations of party HQ or locations of individuals claimed to be associated with execution of genocide plan;
- 1:50,000 topographic maps of Rwanda from Canadian defense forces (we will provide the funds, they need to make request on our behalf);
- Complete set of interview records as well as existing database based on witness interviews
- Unrestricted access to prisoners already convicted by the ICTR.
- Complete coding of witness statements (“master chronology” from the ICTR Prosecution);
- Comparative analysis of the chronology generated using their witness statements vs. other sources, noting zones of correspondence and disagreement;
- Animation of killings on a day-by-day basis for country (lowest level will be determined by census data they can provide);
- Detailed maps of killings through out country, as well as maps of weapons types used and changing nature of violence over time;
- GIS regression analysis to establish killing patterns were non-random, report of spatial correlates of KIA patterns.
After several months, the Prosecution withdrew their offer and the defense asked us to perform the same exact tasks identified above, Following this, we obtained the map, the witness statements and indirect access to those convicted as well as under the protection of the ICTR. To our knowledge, none of the information we were asked to produce was used in any court case.
Contact us to see examples of redacted testimony (compiled by the court). We offer one of the thousand documents below. Warning - the story is graphic. We are in the process of content analyzing the documents now and making their content available for other scholars after we have removed identifying information not redacted by the ICTR.
Example
1 - Everyone was moving, Hutus and Tutsi together, they split and violence begins (ICTR Witness #/K0117326)
International Criminal Tribunal on Rwanda (ICTR) in Arusha, Tanzania: Through our association with the ICTR, we also obtained access to satellite images of Rwanda prior to the onset of violence. This allowed us to better understand who was where before anything happened. These files are rather large and thus cannot be placed on the webpage but if you are interested, please contact Prof. Christian Davenport. Here is an example: Image of Kibuye:
Initial Coding (2000-2006)
Our initial coding for this project was much more extensive than what we ended up focusing on (i.e., violence). Initially, we were interested in capturing a wider variety of activities and thus our coding scheme was much more ambitious. As a result, we ended up identifying a lot more information than was utilized above. We make these data available below (all are in Excel format):
Some interesting comparisons are made here.
Part of the reason for focusing our effort exclusively on violence was that we found that the coding scheme we developed (where we needed information on who the perpetrators were [by name or organization], who was targeted [by name, ethnicity, age and gender], what was done to them, where [by village and/or commune] and when [by the hour/day/week/month]) very difficult to complete - especially for the wide variety of behaviors we were trying to track. Indeed, as we were looking at individual events (i.e., discrete occurrences undertaken by a specific individual/group in a particular place/time directed against another individual/group), there were many characteristics (i.e., columns in the database that were blank. For example, there was very little evidence provided in the source material that a particular killing in a particular place/time was conducted for genocidal purposes as opposed to some other reason (e.g., there was no discussion of lists being utilized, no discussion of the victim or perpetrator's ethnicity and no mention of id cards - this was especially the case for the largest killings). Focus allowed us to better identify what was taking place, comparing this across different sources. With this in mind, we discarded all other categories and highlighted only violent deaths, returned to the initial reports to once again make sure that we had extracted all relevant information and then began to build the database identified above.
- Ministry of Education
- Ministry of Youth Culture and Sport
- Ibuka modified by Filip Verwimp - codebook
- African Rights
- Human Rights Watch
Some interesting comparisons are made here.
Part of the reason for focusing our effort exclusively on violence was that we found that the coding scheme we developed (where we needed information on who the perpetrators were [by name or organization], who was targeted [by name, ethnicity, age and gender], what was done to them, where [by village and/or commune] and when [by the hour/day/week/month]) very difficult to complete - especially for the wide variety of behaviors we were trying to track. Indeed, as we were looking at individual events (i.e., discrete occurrences undertaken by a specific individual/group in a particular place/time directed against another individual/group), there were many characteristics (i.e., columns in the database that were blank. For example, there was very little evidence provided in the source material that a particular killing in a particular place/time was conducted for genocidal purposes as opposed to some other reason (e.g., there was no discussion of lists being utilized, no discussion of the victim or perpetrator's ethnicity and no mention of id cards - this was especially the case for the largest killings). Focus allowed us to better identify what was taking place, comparing this across different sources. With this in mind, we discarded all other categories and highlighted only violent deaths, returned to the initial reports to once again make sure that we had extracted all relevant information and then began to build the database identified above.
Initial Attempts at Visualization
Source material collected but not used above in estimations (used for comparisons)
Physicians for Human Rights is an organization that uses medical and scientific methods in order to uncover human rights violations. The objective of their efforts in Rwanda was to collect evidence for the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda (ICTR). Within a two-month project ( beginning in December 1995), they conducted a forensics investigation of this specific area surrounding the Kibuye Catholic Church and Home of St. Jean. Their efforts consisted of sketching maps of buildings and vegetation within this area, searching for and categorizing skeletal remains, and excavating mass graves. The team of specialists is made up of seventeen individuals with forensics pathology and anthropology expertise. Here is the original brief description of the forensic report. We are trying to obtain a copy of the more detailed report.
Survey of Genocide Survivors - Recencement des Rescapés du Génocide au Rwanda (2008), Institut National de la Statistique du Rwanda (INSR).
- This is the link to a New York Times story of the exhumation.
- This is the link to a more detailed description in an academic article about forensics.
Survey of Genocide Survivors - Recencement des Rescapés du Génocide au Rwanda (2008), Institut National de la Statistique du Rwanda (INSR).
